IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 April 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
It was a relatively quiet session as the dollar index (DXY) hovered around 105.70 while spot gold traded around $2,320/oz. Prices for crude oil remain lifted with WTI oil edging higher after rebounding off $83.20 earlier this morning.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
After a strong second half where GDP increased 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarter of 2023 on an annualised basis, the advance estimate for first quarter GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 points to a steady continuation in economic expansion albeit at a slower rate. However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model points to a forecast of 2.9%. Should this advance estimate print higher to match the GDPNow model, it could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past eight weeks with claims averaging around 214K over this period. The current forecast of 214K is inline with this average. Should claims come in lower than this forecast, it could also function as a bullish catalyst for the greenback.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
After a strong second half where GDP increased 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarter of 2023 on an annualised basis, the advance estimate for first quarter GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 points to a steady continuation in economic expansion albeit at a slower rate. However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model points to a forecast of 2.9%. Should this advance estimate print higher to match the GDPNow model, it could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past eight weeks with claims averaging around 214K over this period. The current forecast of 214K is inline with this average. Should claims come in lower than this forecast, it could also function as a bullish catalyst for the greenback.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks; inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.
- Next meeting runs from 30 April to 1 May 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
After a strong second half where GDP increased 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarter of 2023 on an annualised basis, the advance estimate for first quarter GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 points to a steady continuation in economic expansion albeit at a slower rate. However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model points to a forecast of 2.9%. Should this advance estimate print higher to match the GDPNow model, it could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past eight weeks with claims averaging around 214K over this period. The current forecast of 214K is inline with this average. Should claims come in lower than this forecast, it could also function as a bullish catalyst for the greenback and thus create downward pressure for gold prices.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie hit an overnight high of 0.6530 before pulling back towards 0.6500 at the beginning of the Asia session. Upward momentum remains in place for this currency pair – today’s resistance and support levels lie at 0.6550 and 0.6460 respectively.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the seventh pause out of the last eight board meetings.
- The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4% over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated, and is moderating at a more gradual pace.
- The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
- While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
- The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Next meeting is on 7 May 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
After climbing as high as 0.5952 during the US session, the Kiwi dropped lower towards 0.5930 as Asian markets came online. This currency pair could continue to edge higher as the day progresses – today’s resistance and support levels lie at 0.5975 and 0.5880 respectively.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
- The Committee remains confident that the current level of the OCR is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures to ensure inflation returns to target.
- However, current consumer price inflation remains above the Committee’s 1 to 3% target range. A restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation.
- The Committee discussed upside risks to the inflation outlook: persistent services inflation remains a risk and goods price inflation remains elevated while anticipated near-term increases to local government rates, insurance, and utility costs, could also further slow the decline in headline inflation.
- The Committee discussed downside risks to the inflation outlook: ongoing restrictive monetary policy in an environment of weak global growth could lead to a more rapid decline in inflation than expected. Business and consumer confidence remain particularly weak which could lead to more unemployment and financial stress than expected while structural challenges facing the economy in China remain a concern given its importance for the global economy and for New Zealand’s trade.
- Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from JPY today?
Tokyo’s core CPI re-accelerated in February as it jumped from 1.8% to 2.5% in February and remained elevated at 2.4% in March, all on an annualised basis. The estimate of 2.2% for April shows this inflation metric increasing once more but at a slower rate. Should the final result come in hot, it could put pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its key policy rate once again at this Friday’s monetary policy meeting – such a move could potentially strengthen the yen and drive USD/JPY lower.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its JGB purchases with broadly the same amount as before.
- In addition, the Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and will also gradually reduce the amount of purchases of CP and corporate bonds and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.
- Underlying CPI inflation is likely to increase gradually toward achieving the price stability target of 2%, as the output gap turns positive and as medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise.
- Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being, supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand, although it is expected to be under downward pressure stemming from a slowdown in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.
- Next meeting is on 26 April 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
Yesterday’s German ifo Business Climate showed the momentum in business sentiment growing further as this index r0ose from 87.9 to 89.4 in April. All four components (manufacturing, services, trade and construction) of this index improved noticeably. Not only did sentiment increase for the third consecutive month, it also surpassed market estimates of 88.9. The Euro continues to tread higher cautiously with a near-term resistance around the 1.0730-level.
Central Bank Notes:
- The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate on hold at 4.50%.
- Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation with most measures of underlying inflation easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits.
- Financing conditions remain restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation but domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.
- The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and if the Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
- Next meeting is on 6 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Despite weakness in the franc, USD/CHF has failed to break above 0.9150 in recent weeks. This level has functioned as a near-term resistance and it is likely to cap any further gains for this currency pair for today while the downside is supported around 0.9080.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 1.75% to 1.50% in March.
- For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability.
- According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years.
- The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year and it is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters.
- Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year.
- Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
The Pound climbed above 1.2450 overnight and could continue to edge higher today as demand for the dollar is muted. Near-term resistance for GBP/USD is at 1.2480 while the downside support lies within the region of 1.2310.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8-to-1 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
- One member preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in February from 4.0% in January and December while Services consumer price inflation has declined but remains elevated, at 6.1% in February.
- CPI inflation is projected to fall to slightly below the 2% target in 2024 Q2, marginally weaker than previously expected owing to the freeze in fuel duty announced in the Budget.
- In the February Report projection, CPI inflation had been expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4, to around 2.75%.
- Having declined through the second half of last year, UK GDP and market sector output are expected to start growing again during the first half of this year while the fiscal measures in Spring Budget 2024 are likely to increase the level of GDP by around 0.25% over coming years.
- Next meeting is on 9 May 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
After declining 0.3% in January, Canada’s retail sales missed market expectations of a meagre gain of 0.1% as sales dropped 0.1% to mark the second consecutive month of decline. Sales have also dropped in four out of the past seven months to highlight weakness in sales, a potential sign that the consumer spending is grinding to a halt. Despite weakness in the Canadian economy, the Loonie has strengthened since mid-April supported by higher crude oil prices – USD/CAD was trading around 1.3700 as Asian markets came online with a near-term support at 1.3660.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0% for the fifth meeting in a row while continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
- Canada’s economy stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply but economic growth is forecasted to pick up in 2024. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026.
- CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.
- Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.
- The Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months and the Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.
- Next meeting is on 5 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Following the surprise decline of 3.2M barrels of crude in API stockpiles, the EIA inventories also registered a large drawdown of 6.4M barrels versus the estimate o0f a 1.6M-increase. Demand for crude oil in the US looks to have rebounded after four weeks of inventory builds – larger drawdowns in storage levels typically point to increased demand and could keep prices buoyed. WTI oil found support around $83.10 per barrel as Asian markets came online and could edge higher as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
