GBP/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are still in an uptrend with limited upside as it trades between our weekly support at 1.35030 and weekly resistance at 1.38470. The weekly support level also coincides with the 2018 yearly opening level.
On the daily time frame, prices are seeing limited upside, echoing the same view on the weekly time frame. There was a reversal below the daily resistance at 1.37630 although the uptrend remains intact as prices are holding nicely above the ascending trend line seen on the daily chart.
On the H4 timeframe, short term support at the 1.36460 level, coincides with January’s opening level, ascending trend line and 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. This would be an interesting level for buyers and recent price action around that area suggests it’s a strong area of demand flowing in where we could see further upside to our resistance at 1.37630. As 1.3760 is a daily resistance level, H4 gaining much beyond the 1.37630 area is unlikely.
Areas of consideration:
- 3760 resistance which is found on both Daily and H4 timeframe
- Ascending trendline and 36460 support level on H4 timeframe
EUR/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are still in an uptrend with limited upside as it trades between our weekly supply area at 1.2420 – 1.2214 and weekly support at 1.20040.
The weekly support level also coincides with the 2018 yearly opening level. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching support area at 1.1965 – 1.20040 which coincides with our daily ascending trend line and our weekly support area.
On the H4 timeframe, prices are sitting on our short term support area at 1.2040 – 1.2064. This would be an interesting level for buyers and recent price action around that area suggests it’s a strong area of demand flowing in where we could see limited upside to our resistance at 1.2100 which coincides with the 50% fibonacci retracement. As prices on the weekly and daily time frames indicate a bigger pullback could happen before prices reach the daily key support levels, a break below our short term support area at 1.2040 – 1.2064 could open room for further downside to our next support target at 1.19370, which coincides with December’s opening level.
Areas of consideration:
- 2040 – 1.2064 support area found on H4 time frame
- 2100 resistance area and descending trend line found on H4 time frame
AUD/USD:
From the weekly timeframe, we can see Thursday retested support at 0.7605, a previous Quasimodo resistance. With the continuation of bearish move may potentially see the next likely aim of 0.75 figure on the H4 merge with Trend line resistance turn support, taken from the high 1.1080.
A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe shows price reversed towards support turned resistance at 0.7655, with a recovery likely to take aim at Quasimodo resistance drawn from 0.7697.
And on the H4 timeframe, price jumped higher near the 0.77 figure before H4 pencilled in a strong 100-pip pullback towards the downside. Along the January’s opening value at 0.7701, the 78.6% retracement ratio at 0.7862 and Quasimodo resistance at 0.7697 can be seen as the next port of call for the bearish move to the next support target of 0.76 level.
Areas of consideration:
- Market trend has been decisively higher since 2020
- 7697 is a level to be mindful of, converging with January’s opening value from 0.7701 and a 78.6% retracement level at 0.7682.
USD/CAD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our weekly supply area at 1.2887 – 1.29750, which coincides with our 2020 yearly opening level.
On the daily time frame, the resistance target obtained using a 100% projection starting from the breakout of the declining wedge lines up with the weekly resistance area we have identified and was a key graphical resistance area that has been tested and respected multiple times as a support area previously before prices broke this support-turned-resistance area.
On the H4 timeframe, prices are sitting on our short term support area at 1.27705, in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. This would be an interesting level for buyers and recent price action around that area suggests it’s a strong area of demand flowing. That said, we do caution the limited upside, keeping in mind the resistance level that prices are approaching at 1.28776, in line with our horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. As 1.28870 is a daily resistance level, H4 gaining much beyond the resistance area is unlikely.
Areas of consideration:
- 28870 resistance on the Daily timeframe
- 27705 support on H4 timeframe, in line with graphical level and 38.2% fibonacci retracement
USD/JPY
Areas of consideration:
The US dollar continued to clock fresh monthly highs against the Japanese yen, with H4 crossing swords not only with previous swing high at 104.58, but also an alternate AB=CD (blue arrows) bearish formation at the 100% Fibonacci extension point from 105.114. Since then, we have seen buyers step aside, kicking the 104.923 figure back into the light as a possible support level.
Against the backdrop of the H4 timeframe, Monday’s advance added upside impetus to the recent breakout above the weekly declining wedge (106.94/104.18). On the daily chart, price broke above the declining wedge and bounced further towards the weekly resistance level at 106.06, in line with the MA200 resistance.
The daily timeframes displaying room to reach 106.06 underpins the possibility of further buying materialising north of 104.914(H4). However, before that on the H4 chart, we couldn’t ignore the resistance at 105.114 where the 100% fib extension is. If price is able to break above this 105 to 105.114 resistance zone, then we could expect the price to go north of 106.06 (weekly and daily).
USD/CHF:
On the weekly timeframe, USD/CHF continues to be on a steady downtrend as it holds below the descending trend line resistance. Price is approaching the horizontal pullback resistance level at 0.90140 which had held as a support level before price broke through in December 2020.
On the daily timeframe, however, we can see a possible formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which would indicate a potential short-term reversal of the downtrend since March 2020. We see a medium probability bullish scenario where price may continue with further upside if it breaks above the horizontal pullback resistance level at 0.9009 and descending trendline resistance.
Looking at the H4 timeframe, we can see that price is facing bullish pressure after bouncing from the 0.8850 region (green) on the H4 which provided support on Monday, and subsequently breaking above the previous H4 resistance at 0.8923 – 0.89 (Quasimodo resistance and psychological resistance). We see a medium-probability bullish scenario where price pulls back to the horizontal pullback support level at 0.89197, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as well, before bouncing and continuing with resistance on the daily timeframe at 0.9009 as the next upside target. Otherwise, should price fail to hold above the 0.8923-0.89 region, it could potentially swing the other way towards January’s opening level at 0.88240.
Areas of consideration:
- USD/CHF continues to be on a steady downtrend but there is potential for limited upside in the short term.
- 8923-0.89 region is a horizontal pullback support level that can be found on both the daily and H4 timeframes.
- 9009 resistance level is a potential upside target.
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
While the markets made a pullback from the weekly highs, we note that price still continues to hold above key graphical overlap support and moving average at around the 29340 level. There could be a possibility that investors should still see price ranging sideways between 29340 support and 31272 resistance.
The daily picture however paints a bullish picture where price is holding above the daily ascending trendline support with 29340 support as a possible level where we could see buyers in the neighbourhood looking to enter to push price upwards towards 2021 highs.
On the H4, price just broke below the short term moving average where 30208 resistance is the level to hold should we see any short term intra-day pullbacks. We also want to point out that 29340 on the H4 falls nicely in line with a Fibonacci confluence zone where we see multiple key Fibonacci levels lining up. 30208 resistance is the short term level where we could see sellers enter with their shorts to push price lower towards support at 29340. Otherwise, failure to hold below 30208 could see price swing the other way towards 2021 highs at 31272.
Areas of consideration:
- 29340 price level as the strong support that lines up on weekly, daily and H4
- 31272 resistance as the all time high and also currently 2021 yearly high
XAU/USD (GOLD):
On the weekly timeframe, we have the gold price drifting lower but still holding above long term moving average support. With price holding between support at 1764 and resistance at 1965, traders can expect price to show more range bound price action over the next few weeks. On the daily chart however, we see price forming a descending channel with price holding below the immediate 50% Fibonacci retracement level and resistance at 1875. As long as price continues to hold below this level, we could see a build up of selling pressure towards recent swing low and support at 1764. Upside potential is limited due to descending channel resistance as well.
On the 4H timeframe, price is also showing intraday range bound movement, capped below Fibonacci confluence and resistance zone at 1875. It is possible to see sellers enter with their shorts to push prices lower towards graphical swing low support at 1831. Otherwise, failure for price to hold below resistance could see a build up in buying pressure to push price higher towards key Fibonacci extension level and resistance at 1902.
Areas of consideration:
- 1875 resistance which is found on both Daily and H4 timeframe
- Descending Channel formation on the Daily chart
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