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Wednesday 11th August 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the weekly support at 91.8 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the weekly resistance L1 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may bearish towards the daily support at 91.782 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the daily resistance L1 at 94.051 in line with horizontal swing high.

On the 4H timeframe, price may bearish towards the 4H support at 92.757 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the 4H resistance L1 at 93.437 in line with daily resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4H resistance L1 of 93.437
  • 4H support of 92.757

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price dropped lower and tested descending trendline support at 1677. Price is now holding between 1833 resistance and 1677 support. These two levels would be of key interest to long term traders. A break of either of these levels should see price push higher towards next resistance at 1965 or next support at 1445. On the daily, price reacted sharply on weekly support at 1677. With stochastics reacting above support, we see a low probability bullish scenario where price may bounce towards 1833 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1677 will see the price drop much lower to 1623 support next.

On the H4, price is holding above intraday support at 1717. With stochastics also holding above support where price bounced in the past, we could see a short term intraday push higher towards key graphical overlap resistance at 1791. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1717 support zone will see price drop towards next daily support at 1677 instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1717 H4 support is level to watch for bounce

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price has come back to test support at 1.16950, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If the price broke down from this support level, we could potentially see it swing towards support at 1.14578, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. On the daily chart, price faced bearish pressure and dropped to support at 1.17270, in-line with 100% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices dropped to support at 1.17130, in-line with 127.2% and 200% Fibonacci extension. The price is at major support and there could potentially be a short-term bounce to resistance at 1.17400, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also at support where previous bounces occurred. The next resistance could potentially be at 1.17712, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops from here, it could potentially find support at 1.16809, in-line with 100% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potentially be at 1.16563, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.16809 and 1.16563
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.17400 and 1.17712

 

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF on the weekly chart has shown a bounce in the daily support in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension , and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance as well as the 100 moving average. The daily chart has shown a strong bounce from the support at 0.8924 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the H4 chart, the price has broken out of the descending trendline showing a bullish momentum . The price has reached the first resistance at 0.92326 in line with the previous swing high. Prices are potentially going to continue to ride the bullish price action to the second resistance in line with the 27.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by the price holding above the Ichimoku cloud and the 200 Moving average.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could face bearish pressure after hitting the 1st resistance.
  • H4 time frame resistance 0.92326.

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices could potentially be forming bearish flag consolidation after breaking down from ascending trendline support-turned-resistance to retest support at 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are at potential support at 1.38326, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices broke down from the triangle pattern to support at 1.38260, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. There could potentially be a short-term bounce to resistance at 1.39014, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also at support where previous drops occurred. The next resistance could potentially be at 1.39480, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops from here, it could potentially swing towards support at 1.37837, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potentially be at 1.37426, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 200% Fibonacci extension and Symmetrical Triangle breakdown target.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37837 and 37426 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.39014 and 1.39480 resistance level

 

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to weekly support 107.480 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the other hand, price might move above the weekly descending trendline resistance and may move towards the weekly resistance at 111.660  in line with 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may bearish to the daily support at 108.559 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price might move towards the daily resistance L1 at 111.658 in line with horizontal swing high.

On the 4H  timeframe,  price may bearish to the 4H support at 109.326 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price might move towards the 4H resistance L1 at 111.675 in line with horizontal swing high.

Areas of consideration:

  • 815 resistance level on the 4H timeframe
  • 326 support level on the 4H timeframe

 

AUD/USD:

Looking at the daily chart, the weekly support has turned into resistance at 0.74186 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci extension and  38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price is holding below the 200 moving average.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, we see price did a strong bounce up from 0.73159 forming a horizontal swing low. AUDUSD is facing bearish pressure, price would potentially reach the 1st support in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame showing bearish momentum.
  • Daily and Weekly showing bearish momentum.

 

NZD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we could see that prices are consolidating within resistance at 0.71040 and support at 0.69080. On the daily chart, price faced bearish pressure and closed below 20EMA at 0.69850, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. There could potentially be further downside.

On the H4 timeframe prices bounced from our support at 0.69730, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially swing towards resistance at 0.70300, in-line with 50%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance. Stochastic has also bounced off from support and there could potentially be further upside. The next resistance could potentially be at 0.70630, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops here, it could potentially swing towards support at 0.69490, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potentially be at 0.69108, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 0.69490 and 69108
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 70300 and 0.70630

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as the price is holding below this level, we see price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price recently bounced from the ascending trendline support and may find resistance at the graphical swing high resistance level at 1.28075. Failure to hold above support at 1.24239 could see price drop topwards next support at 1.23081.

On the H4, price is holding above short term ascending trendline support. With stochastic approaching support where price bounced in the past, it is possible to see price bounce towards 1st resistance at 1.26209. Otherwise, breaking below 1st support will see price drop towards 2nd support at 1.24747.

Areas of consideration:

  • Daily and H4 timeframes show room for further bullish pressure

 

OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price has reversed from weekly resistance from horizontal swing high at 77.82,  price may continue its bearish momentum, it may find support at 54.63 weekly support in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2 Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks above 77.82 which is weekly resistance at horizontal swing high, it may swing up towards the Weekly resistance L1 at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar bearish pressure as price has broken through the ascending trendline support (now resistance) and may find Daily support at 64.6 which is in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the 4H, price is showing bearish heading towards the 4H support at 67.42 in line with  horizontal swing low and may continue to its bearish momentum towards the 4H support L1 at 64.6 in line with 127.2 Fibonacci retracement

Areas of consideration:

  • 4 resistance level on the 4H timeframe
  • 6 support level on the 4H timeframe

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 33270 support and 37770 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see a possibility of price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways, still testing and holding below resistance at 35600. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price drifted higher and is now holding between daily resistance at 35600 and support at 34922. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where price may face further bullish pressure and push higher towards daily resistance at 35600. Otherwise, failure to hold above 34922 support will see price drop towards next support at 34329.

Areas of consideration:

  • Limited upside on H4. Watch resistance and support levels for price reaction

 

 

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