ICMarket

Wednesday 14th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices face bearish pressure from the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily chart, prices found support and bounced at 1.17975, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. We could possibly see the price swing towards resistance at 1.19000, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices faced bearish pressure and found support at 1.17775, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could possibly see a low-probability scenario where the price faces further bearish pressure and swings towards first support at 1.17536, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also facing bearish pressure before reaching the level where previous bounces occurred. The next support will be at 1.17267, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces from current level, it will swing towards our first resistance at 1.18151, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.18805, in-line with two 127.2% Fibonacci extensions.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17536 and 1.17267
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18151 and 1.18805

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price bounced from our support level at 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices bounced to resistance level at 1.39027, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA. We could potentially see the price facing bearish pressure from this level. If the price is able to close above 20EMA, it will swing toward resistance at 1.40000, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and psychological resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, prices dropped and found support at 1.38141, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. We could possibly see a low-probability scenario where the price faces further bearish pressure and swings towards first support at 1.37544, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. MACD is also indicating bearish momentum for further downside. The next level of support will be at 1.36854, in-line with 78.6% and 127.2% Fibonacci extensions.

If price bounces from this level, it will swing towards first resistance at 1.39040, in-line with 61.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extensions. The next level of resistance will be at 1.39435, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and daily 200MA.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37544 and 1.36854 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.39040 and 1.39435 resistance level

 

AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price is testing the support level of 0.74177, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. If price breaks beneath this level we may see a push down towards 0.71245.  On the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar picture where price is trending in a bearish momentum under the descending trendline, and is testing the support level indicated on the weekly timeframe. If price rejects the area of support, we may see it push higher towards 0.76499 level, in line with Horizontal graphical overlap, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, extension and descending trendline.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price reversed from the 0.750 major level, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap and is currently approaching the Weekly and Daily support levels once again.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, price approaching Weekly and Daily Support
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

 

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are holding between the 112.148 resistance level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 104.224 level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily timeframe, we could potentially see prices pushing down towards support level 108.425 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support and is pushing down towards short term support at 109.220 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices might pull back towards 110.787 level first to retest the ascending trendline support before it continues its bearish move down. A break above the 110.787 level could possibly see a push up towards 112.148 weekly resistance level.Stochastics is approaching the 94.66 resistance level, potential for a bounce.

Areas of consideration:

  • 220 support level on the H4 timeframe
  • 787 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 425 support level on the daily timeframe

 

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price has broken the descending trendline resistance-turned-support and is currently testing the long term moving average and MACD indicator is below 0, showing bearish momentum. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.25470 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that the indicators are showing a build up in bullish momentum. Currently, it is testing the Weekly resistance where we may see a break towards the upside. On the H4, we see price pushed above the previous high near 1.25 major level, and is currently reacting beneath 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Price may push further up towards 1.25920, in line with 127% fibonacci retracement and previous swing high, once 78.6% fibonacci retracement has been broken. However, if price continues to trend under the level, we may see a swing towards 1.24443, in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bullish momentum towards weekly resistance
  • 24443 is the support level to watch on H4

 


USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, and price is now reversing below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 0.92300 resistance.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price is now pulling back towards the 0.92300 resistance area, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. We note that RSI is also holding below the descending trendline resistance, showing possible bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias.  In this scenario, we could see price reverse and drop further towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Otherwise, price could also pull back to retest at the 0.92300 resistance as well.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could potentially face further bearish pressure.
  • We could see price drop further towards the next 0.90500 support level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, prices bounced higher above 32765 support. With price holding 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and testing resistance at 35090. With stochastic still testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price tested and is now reacting below 35090 daily resistance. Stochastic is still testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 34358 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price trades sideways, still holding above 1764 weekly support. Further bullish pressure above 1764 weekly support could be possible with an upside target at 1855 resistance.

On the H4, price is trading within a tight range holding above 1794 support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, a further push up above 1794 support with an upside target at 1835 could be likely. Otherwise, failure to hold above will see price swing the other way towards weekly support at 1764 instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1764 weekly support is the key level to watch.

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